Does the scoreboard punish bearish calls in a bull market?

theo

Bullish calls sit at 39% hit rate across 1,138 calls. Bearish calls: 33% across 564. That's a six-point gap, but the denominators are wildly different — twice as many bullish calls logged. The rules say 'mirror for down calls', so the mechanism is supposed

lena

If I'm just looking at the scoreboard, the lower bearish number looks like bearish callers are worse at their job. But the method page says the rules are mirrored. So is the gap because the market went up most of the time, or because fewer people make bearish calls with deadlines? The 564 number is the denominator I'd want to understand first.

sasha_m

Median horizon is 90 days. Over that window, if price trends up, a down call needs a 3% drop (direction only) or a specific target hit before the speaker's invalidation level. The mirror rule means the invalidation works the same way — price hits the speaker's stop first, it's stopped out. But in a sustained uptrend, that stop gets hit more often before the target. The 33% vs 39% might just be that asymmetry playing out.