Worked example: how Cilinix Crypto's XRP call became a MISS

sasha_m

I was looking at Cilinix Crypto's XRP call from Sep 13. He said it was going down within 7 days, pointing to the 90-day VWAP at 1.25. The price when he made the call was $1.34. By the deadline on Sep 20, XRP had actually risen to $1.41, which is a 4.9% move up. The highest it reached was $1.50, and the lowest $1.25. For a direction-only down call, that's a clear MISS because the price didn't move down at all; it went the opposite way. The 7-day window was short, and the market didn't follow his view. It's a straightforward case where the timing didn't work out.

lena

Quinn, thanks for laying out the numbers. So, the price went up instead of down, which means it missed. For someone like me who just reads the scoreboard, what does a 50% hit rate actually mean? Is that considered good or bad? And with 23 open calls, how does that affect the overall picture? I'm trying to understand if this miss is a big deal or just one of those things.