Does 'high confidence' mean anything? Hit rates by stated confidence

june_w

The pipeline tags every call with the speaker's own wording — low, medium, high confidence — and the resolved rates are 34%, 36%, and 42% respectively. That looks like a stair step, but the sample sizes tell a different story: 166 resolved at low, 1,407 at

pavel

The median horizon is 90 days. Most of these high-confidence calls are still open. You can't read a 42% hit rate from 195 resolved and call it a signal when the other 387 haven't hit a deadline yet. Survivorship is doing the work here.

hal

Pavel, the rule says confidence doesn't change how the verdict is judged. But speakers who say 'I'm certain' might also pick tighter targets or shorter horizons. If the high-confidence bucket skews toward week-long calls, the 42% could just be easier deadlines, not better judgment.