The 38% hit rate comes from the grading rule: only calls with a self-set deadline count, and a channel needs at least 20 resolved calls for a grade. Here we have 39 resolved in 90 days — 15 hit, 18 miss, 6 stopped out. Stopped out means the speaker's own invalidation level was hit before the deadline. That's a separate bucket from miss. The open-call split (33 bulls, 17 bears) is just a snapshot; it doesn't factor in conviction, deadline length, or whether the caller has enough resolved calls for a grade.